THE MOORE EFFECT: If you think the Jets sudden success in the red zone is because Brian Schottenheimer suddenly found the magic formula and Tom Moore's presence is just a funny coincidence, you probably also think your wife is smiling when she comes home from the "gym" because she really enjoyed the "treadmill", yet she never seems to lose any weight. You probably also think Santa is getting ready to make his trek from the North Pole. This is an interesting development because if the Jets make the playoffs as a wild card team, we will hear a lot of talk about how difficult or impossible it is to win on the road 3 consecutive weeks. Not true. Less than 12 months ago the Packers won in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago in consecutive weeks before beating the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. The 2005 Steelers won in Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver in consecutive weeks before beating the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. Did we also mention that the 2007 Giants won in Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Green Bay in consecutive weeks before beating the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. When something happens once it might be due to luck. Happens a second time two years later and it might be a strange happenstance. When it happens a third time in 6 years it no longer becomes unique, rather it seems normal. Nobody will blink an eye if it happens a fourth time this year. Think the folks in Pittsburgh are going to lose faith if they don't win the division? Point being is that going on the road as a wild card team won't kill the Jets season, just as it didn't last year. What killed the Jets last year was the goalline stand at the Steelers 1 yard line with 8 minutes to go and the Jets trailing 24-10, as they rallied from a 24-0 halftime deficit. On 1st and goal from the 2 Shonn Greene plunged forward for a yard. Now 3 feet away from pulling within 1 score and silencing the crowd, the Jets would surely go back to their ground and pound roots and stuff it into the end zone or use their identity as deception and go with a bootleg or play action pass. Only five weeks earlier on this same field, the Jets easily fooled the Steelers with a naked bootleg. Sure you might be afraid to go back to the well twice, but why not use that deception to your advantage and go play action looking for a TE on a cross or a RB in the flat? On 2nd down the Jets remain in their jumbo package, Sanchez offers a weak play action and throws incomplete to Keller. Good plan, but poorly executed play. So now its 3rd and goal from the 1 with the clock approaching 8 minutes remaining on your season. You are still 1 yard away and clearly in 4 down territory. Keep in mind the Steelers are an excellent goalline defense, but your bread and butter remains your ground & pound offense, or at least the idea of that being your identity. Maybe you want to go back to the run on 3rd down to set up the play action again on 4th. Maybe you want to stuff it down their throats twice to try to get the 3 feet. What you don't want to do is have your undersized QB throw an inside slant to an undersized WR while trying to squeeze the ball between behemoth defensive lineman and linebackers. No what happens? The ball gets knocked down at the line of scrimmage by Steeler Lamar Woodley. OK, so you want to throw the ball into the end zone and your plan is to give your young QB two shots at making a play? Wrong again! The Jets went back to their jumbo package, handed it off to the smaller Tomlinson and were stuffed for no gain.
GROUNDED BIRDS: The Jets key to winning this week will be their ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have a finesse offense that looks to make big plays by creating space. The Eagle love to send their receivers on deeper vertical routes which opens up underneath throws to the TE and dump offs to the RB. Vick will also make plays with his legs, and McCoy is also a weapon to make big plays, however this is not an offense that can just line it up and run it at you, nor can they just drop back and throw. The Eagles problems stem from the offensive line, long developing plays, and selfish/stupid players who are incapable of avoiding costly mistakes. It is the perfect recipe for points and turnovers, hence why the betting public loves to take overs in Eagles games. The Jets actually match up better than most teams do against the Eagles offense. Revis and Cromartie make it difficult to hit the deep pass, the Jets can now generate pressure with a 4 man rush utilizing Maybin, and they have unique linebackers in Pace and Harris who can create havoc in the Eagles backfield. The Jets also have a superior defensive line, whose size should give the Eagles interior line problems, while also neutralizing Jason Peters. The Jets offense should also be able to control the football against an undersized defense that spreads out their defensive ends creating huge running lanes. The Eagle as have tweaked their schemes a bit in the last few weeks, but they aren't suddenly going to grow 4 inches and add 50 lbs. of muscle before Sunday. Expect to see more of the Jets new jumbo package featuring Vlad Ducasse. Sure the Jets were way to predictable running the ball 18 of the 19 plays Ducasse was in against the Chiefs last week and his presence may bring an extra 220 lb. safety into the box but Vlad is a beast who should be able to help establish a presence on the ground while allowing Sanchez time to find his rhythm. If the Jets are smart they will find a way to complete a few safe passes out of this formation to provide a little balance, make defenses think twice about stuffing the box and potentially opening up bigger holes on the ground, which is the ultimate purpose of the formation.
TONE TIME: Look for the Jets to target Rodgers-Cromartie in the Eagles secondary, especially if they get a one-on-one matchup against Holes. Holmes torched Rodgers-Cromartie on his way to winning Super Bowl MVP a few years ago. For the most part we expect the Jets to rely on their running game and play action pass to win this week and don't expect huge games from the Jets WR's except for in the red zone where the Jets have found out how to use their weapons.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Just hold onto the ball fellas, please. That's all we ask. Of course as we type this Westhoff is trying to convince Kerley that he is the next Devin Hester and there is no doubt in my mind that they will fumble another punt again this season. Just a question of when it happens and if they can overcome it, again.
Might have a few more thoughts before the game, but for now here is a quick prediction.
Jets 28 Eagles 24
PLAYOFF UPDATE: Quick reminder that the Jets could get big help if the Colts beat the Titans this week. the Jets need the Titans to lose once more to give them a little breathing room. Don't count on it with games remaining against the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans.If the Titans run the table, that would force the Jets to run the table, A Titans loss allows the Jets to lose an NFC game the next two weeks and make the layoffs with a win against the Dolphins. A Titans loss with both a Raiders and Bengals loss in the next 3 weeks would allow the Jets to lose any of their remaining three games. Bottom line is the Jets will need to keep winning unless they get more help. The Jets can clinch a spot with wins these next two weeks and 1 loss each from the Titans, Bengals, and Raiders.
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